Avoiding overstating the strength of forensic evidence: Shrunk likelihood ratios/Bayes factors

When strength of forensic evidence is quantified using sample data and statistical models, a concern may be raised as to whether the output of a model overestimates the strength of evidence. This is particularly the case when the amount of sample data is small, and hence sampling variability is high. This concern is related to concern about precision. This paper describes, explores, and tests three procedures which shrink the value of the likelihood ratio or Bayes factor toward the neutral value of one. The procedures are: (1) a Bayesian procedure with uninformative priors, (2) use of empirical lower and upper bounds (ELUB), and (3) a novel form of regularized logistic regression. As a benchmark, they are compared with linear discriminant analysis, and in some instances with non-regularized logistic regression. The behaviours of the procedures are explored using Monte Carlo simulated data, and tested on real data from comparisons of voice recordings, face images, and glass fragments

Rendering the real - towards a musical landscape

The research project, RENDERING THE REAL - Towards a Musical Landscape investigates and further develops my studies of Australia's rural landscape within an audiovisual context. My research aims towards the synergistic properties of the seen and heard, where only the sights and sounds of my recorded environments were utilized. The research paper details the use of Apple's Final Cut Pro as the apparatus for creating and composing the works produced throughout the research. The use of the software is detailed within the paper, but also where I find inspiration and appropriation of musical constructs. I'm interested in applying musical and repetitive structures in my approach. My goal is developing and expanding notions in how we can recontextualize known experiences and environments, and in doing such find new appreciations and approaches for moving-image artworks

Calculation of Effective Coulomb Interaction for Pr3+Pr^{3+}, U4+U^{4+}, and UPt3UPt_3

In this paper, the Slater integrals for a screened Coulomb interaction of the the Yukawa form are calculated and by fitting the Thomas-Fermi wavevector, good agreement is obtained with experiment for the multiplet spectra of $Pr^{3+}$ and $U^{4+}$ ions. Moreover, a predicted multiplet spectrum for the heavy fermion superconductor $UPt_3$ is shown with a calculated Coulomb U of 1.6 eV. These effective Coulomb interactions, which are quite simple to calculate, should be useful inputs to further many-body calculations in correlated electron metals.Comment: 8 pages, revtex, 3 uuencoded postscript figure

A quantitative analysis of the effectiveness of LOGO as an instructional aid for teaching mechanics in physics

BACKGROUND:Workplace bullying has diverse consequences at both the organisational and individual level. Anecdotal reports indicate that workplace bullying is an issue of particular concern for Australian FIFO workers, which may impact on psychosocial distress. However, no prior studies have examined this issue empirically in a FIFO worker cohort. METHODS AND MATERIALS:A cross-sectional survey study design was used to establish the prevalence of bullying in Australian FIFO, antecedents of bullying, and its association with psychosocial distress. Responses were received from 580 FIFO workers in the Australian resources sector. Primary outcome measures were Negative Acts Questionnaire-Revised, Beck Depression Inventory II, and Beck Hopelessness Scale. Logistic regression models were constructed to examine the association between bullying, suicide risk, and clinical depression. RESULTS:Over half of the respondents experienced workplace bullying (55.7%), and about one-third reported moderate or more severe depression (32.3%). Being above the median age (OR = 0.51; 95% CI = 0.31-0.83) and having a supervisor who failed to promote collaboration (OR = 3.04; 95% CI = 1.84-5.04) were both significantly associated with experiencing bullying. Bullying was associated with an almost threefold increase in the likelihood of participants reporting increased suicide risk (OR = 2.70; 95% CI = 1.53-4.76). Bullying was also associated with participants being almost two and a half times more likely to report clinical depression (OR = 2.38; 95% CI = 1.40-4.05). CONCLUSION:The incidence of bullying in Australian FIFO workers has reached alarming proportions. Bullying was significantly associated with higher levels of clinical depression and suicide risk. The results highlight the need to implement in the Australian resource sector interventions that reduce workplace bullying

2011 program of study : shear turbulence : onset and structure

The theme for the Program in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics for the summer of 2011 was Shear Turbulence: onset and structure. Ten days of principal lectures by FabianWale e and Rich Kerswell began the summer, and a large number of seminars on this and a variety of other topics then continued through the eighth week. These lectures are presented in these Proceedings and form (we believe) the most complete, connected account of this subject) Eleven fellows from around the globe helped to record the principal lectures, and each carried out a project of his/her own, presented in seminar during the tenth and nal week. All these lectures and projects are also presented in this Proceedings volume. The further seminars presented throughout the summer by visitors and (in some cases) by GFD faculty are also listed here. The popular Sears Lecture was given by L. Mahadevan. The title was On growth and form: geometry, physics and biology. It was indeed popular, drawing a large and enthusiastic audience.Funding was provided by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. OCE-0824636 and the Office of Naval Research under Contract No. N00014-09-1084

MEN 2A: Update on the Northern Ireland and Australian Family

The Northern Ireland/Australian family with multiple endocrine neoplasia type 2A (MEN 2A) originally described in 1987 is presented with a revised and enlarged pedigree. Four members of the first generation studied have died. A seventh member of the second generation studied has developed medullary thyroid carcinoma and has progressed to surgery. None of the third generation members studied has shown any conclusive abnormality in metabolic screening tests. Each member of the third and fourth generations has had genetic counseling and (if appropriate) DNA analysis with gene probes close to the MEN 2A gene locus on chromosome 10. All members of this highly penetrant family have remained asymptomatic for their disease